For those looking to be optimistic about global trade volumes, a recent study by HSBC states that global trade stating that it would quadruple by 2030 is music to the ears.
The report forecasts that infrastructure related trade in goods would rise in the coming years as major emerging economies invest in large infrastructure projects. It concludes:
"This analysis suggests that even as economies develop and become wealthier, their demand for infrastructure products remains strong – for both intermediate goods and for investment in equipment. There is no single model for the pattern of industrial capacity, infrastructure
spending and wealth creation. While much of Asia has followed a traditional export-driven industrialisation pattern, India has still been able to achieve growth
without the same focus on infrastructure, butinfrastructure bottlenecks are now blamed for stallinggrowth. As the country becomes wealthier, it willincreasingly build up its infrastructure.
At the same time, advanced economies like the USA, the UK and Germany will need to continue investing in infrastructure to maintain their competitive advantage in supplying investment goods to the rest of the world.
We expect infrastructure-related goods to increase theirshare of rising global trade, providing opportunities forboth exporters and importers of both those goods andthe merchandise that can be manufactured as a result.
Trade forecasts looking down due to protectionism? Thought I heard that somewhere...